ROUND 2 // 1 JUNE 2036

PUBLIC SERVICES HAVE RUN WITHOUT MERIDIAN FOR EIGHT WEEKS

• Meridian's agents stopped working in British public services at midnight on 4 April.
• Inspection was delayed by six months, not dropped.
• Britain is cut off from American AI and faces 25% tariffs.
• The levy took effect on 6 April, and Transition Income is now being paid to 1.1 million people.

ROUND 2 // 1 JUNE 2036

SERVICES UNDER STRAIN

• Benefits paid at March rates New claimants get emergency payments of £400 a month while they wait for a decision.
• Benefit claims pile up About 1.1 million claims are waiting, growing by about 100,000 a week. Only about 12,000 civil servants have been redeployed.
• NHS 111 answers a third of calls It answers about 35% of calls, and A&E attendances are up 18%.
• Records rebuilt by hand Meridian's agents stopped with case records for about 180,000 claimants incomplete. The DWP is rebuilding them by hand.

ROUND 2 // 1 JUNE 2036

COURTS, CARE AND TAX

• Court backlog up a fifth The Crown Court backlog has grown to about 95,000 cases.
• Housing decisions waiting About 40,000 households are waiting for council housing decisions.
• Insurers have withdrawn cover With no plan in place, about 60 councils have taken no new home care clients since 4 April. About 9,000 people are waiting for care assessments.
• Tax checks suspended HMRC has paused most checks and expects about £700 million a month less tax.

ROUND 2 // 1 JUNE 2036

CUT OFF FROM AMERICAN AI

• No American AI in public bodies Since 5 April, no American frontier AI in British public bodies, and no new US models or chips.
• 25% tariffs on British goods They cover about £60 billion a year of goods. Exports to the US fell about a fifth in May.
• Markets down Sterling down 8%, FTSE 100 down 10%, government borrowing costs up 0.8 points.
• Sanctions warning stands Washington still threatens sanctions on British firms that switch to Chinese AI.
• Intelligence held back Washington has not shared its intelligence on the Russian operation.
• Levy in force since 6 April First Transition Income payments: 1.1 million people, averaging £1,900 a month.

ROUND 2 // 1 JUNE 2036

WHAT VOTERS THINK

• Reform leads the polls Reform 30%, Labour 27%, Conservatives 14%, Greens 13%, Liberal Democrats 10%.
• Voters back the stand 56% support the Government's stand against Washington.
• But services are worse 61% say public services have got worse.

ROUND 2 // 1 JUNE 2036

WHAT HAS CHANGED IN THE WORLD

• Meridian's value drops Its shares have fallen 22%.
• Beijing is short of computing power Workers are walking out at its chip plants in water-stressed Shaanxi, around Xi'an, and Inner Mongolia, disrupting China's AI supply chain.
• India and the UAE offer an alternative Both offer AI services as an alternative to Beijing's. Switching would lower the quality of government services and make lead times 15% longer.
• US President lashes out on X In a string of angry posts, he announced tariffs on the European Union and threatened to nationalise TSMC's chip plants in the United States.

ROUND 2 // 1 JUNE 2036

HM GOVERNMENT

• You held the line You delayed inspection six months and kept the levy. Meridian's agents stopped on 4 April, and Washington's tariffs followed.
• Services run on an emergency footing About 1.1 million claims are waiting and NHS 111 answers a third of calls. No deal with the unions was reached.
• Money is tight Tax receipts are falling and borrowing costs are up, but Transition Income must still be paid.
• Your choice: whose systems rebuild the state Rebuild with Europe, building on your EU talks, now that Washington has announced tariffs on the EU too. Or spend to build British capacity.
• Also on the table An emergency Budget that raises taxes or cuts Transition Income, and powers to take control of critical AI systems.

ROUND 2 // 1 JUNE 2036

REFORM UK

• You lead the polls Reform is on 30%, three points ahead of Labour, and 61% of voters say services are worse.
• But voters back the stand 56% support the Government's stand against Washington. Your pact means settling with it.
• Your Round 1 plan A Conservative pact to scrap inspection, a land value tax to replace the levy, and a UK-owned AI layer that keeps citizens' data in Britain.
• Your choice: how close to Washington Agree terms with Washington as the government-in-waiting, including when Meridian would return to public services.
• Also on the table Promise Transition Income in full without the levy, or call for a ban on Chinese AI apps.

ROUND 2 // 1 JUNE 2036

WASHINGTON

• Your measures are in force AI bar and 25% tariffs since 5 April. You blocked Meridian's UK deal, and have not shared your intelligence on the Russian operation.
• Britain has not given in It kept inspection and the levy, and opened EU membership talks.
• President opens new fronts On X, he announced EU tariffs and threatened to nationalise TSMC's US chip plants.
• Your election is coming You face re-election this year, and Congress and American firms want restraint.
• Your choice: press harder or offer a way back Cut the British state off from all American cloud and AI, drop the tariffs but keep the bar on AI, or back Reform as Britain's next government.

ROUND 2 // 1 JUNE 2036

BEIJING

• Britain needs new systems The Government must choose whose systems rebuild its services. Washington threatens sanctions on British firms that switch to Chinese AI.
• You are short of computing power Walkouts at your chip plants in Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia are disrupting your AI supply chain. India and the UAE offer alternatives to your AI.
• Washington is fighting on more fronts It has announced tariffs on the EU and threatened to nationalise TSMC's chip plants in the US.
• Your Round 1 offers Talks with the UK on investment and your models, and pilots with the EU followed by a summit.
• Your choice: what to offer Britain Open Lantern's models to British testing now, offer chips for British-owned data centres, or offer a trade deal with no AI conditions.

ROUND 2 // 1 JUNE 2036

MERIDIAN

• You are out of British public services Your agents stopped on 4 April. Meridian sought an agreement with the UK government, but the US government blocked it.
• Records left incomplete The DWP is rebuilding about 180,000 incomplete claimant records by hand.
• Your shares have fallen 22% And you still owe the levy on your other British revenue.
• You still sell to British firms and households The Business Council will urge smaller firms to use your models if you cut your prices.
• Your choice: how to win back a place in Britain Set up a British company with an independent board, with your models staying in the US.

ROUND 2 // 1 JUNE 2036

BRITISH BUSINESS COUNCIL

• Your members are paying for the standoff Tariffs of 25% hit British goods, and exports to the US fell about a fifth in May.
• No new American models or chips And Washington threatens sanctions on firms that switch to Chinese AI.
• Your Round 1 positions A price deal with Meridian for smaller firms, and a sovereign fund only with clear Government money and access to the EU's AI fund.
• Your choice: a European future or an American one Back Britain joining Europe's AI effort, now that Washington has announced tariffs on the EU too, or call for a deal with Washington.
• Also on the table Lobby Washington to keep supplying British firms, or ask the Treasury for emergency loans.

ROUND 2 // 1 JUNE 2036

WORKERS' FEDERATION

• You won on the levy The levy stayed, and Transition Income is being paid to 1.1 million people.
• No deal on cover was reached You offered to help fill gaps, but no agreement was reached. Only about 12,000 civil servants have been redeployed.
• Services are failing the public About 1.1 million claims are waiting, and NHS 111 answers a third of calls.
• Your choice: staff the services, and on what terms Agree to cover in return for better terms, or hold out and set a date for your demands.
• Also on the table Seek a say in the rebuild, with no compulsory redundancies, or campaign for a tax on firms that replace staff with AI.

ROUND 2 // IN SESSION

ROUND 2

• Public services have now run without Meridian's agents for eight weeks.
• About 1.1 million benefit claims are waiting, and NHS 111 answers a third of calls.
• Britain is cut off from American AI and faces 25% tariffs on British goods.
• Beijing is short of computing power, and India and the UAE offer alternatives.
• The US President announces EU tariffs and threatens TSMC's US chip plants.
• Whose systems will rebuild Britain's public services?
• Will Washington press harder or offer a way back?
• What future does Meridian have in Britain now?
• Can Beijing turn its offers into a deal while short of chips?
• Who staffs the services, and who pays?

ROUND 1 // WHAT HAPPENED

HM GOVERNMENT

• The government paused the inspection requirement for six months, while keeping the levy and transition payments.
• The aim is to buy time to test US models and to check the security of Chinese and European models.
• The Prime Minister announced a delay to enforcement for a fixed period.
• The government will reform public-sector buying so that at least half of public AI provision comes from British companies by 2045, starting now.
• The Prime Minister is opening talks with the EU on every option, up to and including full membership.

ROUND 1 // WHAT HAPPENED

REFORM UK

• Reform agreed to the Conservatives' pact: scrap inspection so Britain can settle quickly with Washington.
• Reform proposed replacing the levy with a 0.45% land value tax in the UK.
• Its manifesto promises a UK-owned AI system that picks the best-value model for each job and keeps citizens' private data in the UK.
• It wants an open market for all AI providers, beholden to no country or company.

ROUND 1 // WHAT HAPPENED

WASHINGTON

• The US brought its tariffs forward from 1 May to 5 April.
• Tariffs start at 25% and rise by 10% every week for any British firm that switches to Chinese AI, with sanctions to follow.
• The US will not allow the deal Meridian wanted to make with the UK government.

ROUND 1 // WHAT HAPPENED

BEIJING

• Beijing is in talks with the UK government about investing in Britain and the government using Chinese AI models.
• Beijing is waiting for the UK's answer on changes to the law.
• Replying to the EU, Beijing offered pilots in non-sensitive government services that work with EU systems, on open-weight and open-source terms.
• Beijing wants a summit with the EU once the pilots end, in three to six months.

ROUND 1 // WHAT HAPPENED

MERIDIAN

• Meridian sought an agreement with the UK government, but the US government blocked it.
• Meridian's chief executive denied the reports behind the Blyth protests and blamed possible foreign influence.
• Meridian promised that nothing will be taken out of the UK that would harm its infrastructure.
• Meridian welcomed working with the British Business Council.

ROUND 1 // WHAT HAPPENED

BRITISH BUSINESS COUNCIL

• The Council proposed an inspection at Meridian's UK offices that would not make Meridian reveal its model weights, with Meridian helping to lobby the US government.
• It will explore ties with other governments, to gain leverage.
• It will only back a UK sovereign investment fund if the government commits clear funding and its members can use the EU's sovereign AI fund and others, such as Canada's and Australia's.
• If Meridian cuts its prices and widens access to its models, the Council will encourage smaller British businesses to use them.

ROUND 1 // WHAT HAPPENED

WORKERS' FEDERATION

• The Federation demanded that the levy and inspection audits stay, with investment in AI skills and a long-term move towards AI sovereignty.
• 400,000 people joined its peaceful march in London.
• It offered to work with government and business, and to help fill gaps in public services.
• It welcomed the government's recommitment to the levy and condemned the violence and foreign interference.
• It will lobby EU workers' parties and the European Commission to accept Beijing's offer to build chip factories and data centres in the EU, to counter US limits.

BREAKING // 2:30 PM

VIOLENT PROTESTS TARGET DATA CENTRE

• On Tuesday night, a crowd gathered outside Meridian's data centre at Blyth, Northumberland, after a recording spread online claiming Meridian would wipe British benefit and NHS records if it left.
• Vehicles were burned and a security contractor seriously injured.
• Recording was fake. The National Cyber Security Centre says, with moderate confidence, a Russian influence operation is amplifying both sides of the dispute through networks of fake accounts run by AI agents.
• American staff at the site have moved to temporary accommodation.

BREAKING // 2:03 PM

UPDATE: 6 MARCH 2036

• Insurers say they will not renew cover after 4 April for councils and NHS trusts whose services depend on Meridian, without approved plan for running services. Beaumont Insurance, the market leader, has not yet said what it will do.
• The Republican chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee has backed the White House.
• NHS England has asked trusts to identify clinicians, including recently retired staff, who could answer NHS 111 calls from 5 April.
• A snap poll finds 46% want the Government to hold firm against US, 39% want a deal with Washington, and 15% don't know.

BREAKING // 1:40 PM

UPDATE: 5 MARCH 2036

• Interest rate on ten-year government bonds has risen by 0.4 percentage points, biggest one-day rise since 2022. Bank shares down about 6%
• Calls to Universal Credit helplines have doubled as claimants ask whether payments will stop after 4 April
• Local Government Association says councils in England do not know whether housing allocations and social care visits will continue if Meridian's agents stop – asked for urgent gov guidance
• European Commission says it is following events closely. France calls for a European response to American pressure

1 OCTOBER 2026

BRITAIN 2036

SIMULATION MECHANICS

• Choose how to organize — Your team decides who does what. You can do anything plausible.
• Three major moves per team, per round — Last orders 10 minutes before the end.
• Announcements are not decisions — A statement is not a move. Only moves change the world.
• The House Team is the outside world — Question it in character. To reach anyone, come and talk to us. Talking is free.
• The world doesn't pause — If you don't decide, that's a decision.

WHAT COUNTS AS A MOVE

• Take an action — Something within your power, with real-world consequences others must respond to: passing a law, nationalising a company, holding joint military exercises.
• Start building — A named plan with an owner, staff and a start date.
• Commit resources — Money or people behind a named goal: we will invest £500 million in X.
• Create a deal — A signed agreement with another team.

THE WORLD IN 2036

• Britain has experienced another lost decade — Economic growth has been around 1% a year, and unemployment is 8.5%.
• Politics and the public are angry — Labour, in government since 2024, polls at 24% with a majority of 18. Reform, the official opposition since 2029, leads the polls at 31%. Jobs and AI are top concerns for voters, along with the cost of living.
• AI is central to the functioning of the state — Advances in AI and a worsening fiscal position have led to heavy automation of public services. Meridian, the leading US AI company, is the main provider.
• Global order has eroded significantly — Tensions are high, with the US and China at economic parity, and Russia continues covert attacks on Europe. An America First administration, in office since 2033, seeks re-election in 2036.
• US and Chinese tech far exceeds other nations — Meridian (market value $10 trillion) is the main US lab, and Lantern is China's. 75% of UK compute is in US-owned or leased data centres, and almost all advanced chips Britain uses are American.

THE AI ACCOUNTABILITY ACT

• Passed by Parliament in 2035 — After a 2034 benefits scandal left thousands without payments, and no one could examine the AI behind it.
• The regulator can inspect any AI — The AI Safety Commission can inspect any AI that decides about citizens, from midnight on 4 April 2036.
• Fines of up to 10% of worldwide revenue — Plus daily penalties, and in the end a court ban. The AI Minister can overrule, in public.
• A 4% levy on major AI providers — The AI Transition Levy, on the UK revenue of firms earning over £1 billion here, from 6 April. About £8 billion a year.
• Transition Income — 70% of previous pay for up to two years for people whose jobs were automated. 1.8 million registered, first payments on 30 April.

5 MARCH 2036

WASHINGTON ISSUES ULTIMATUM TO UK

• AI Accountability Act set a deadline of 4 April 2036 for Meridian to share access to its AI models with the UK regulator
• The US has now declined to share access and issued demands
• Unless Britain suspends inspections of AI and the 4% levy, the US will terminate UK public sector access to Meridian’s systems, end UK access to advanced chips and AI models, and impose 25% tariffs on British goods

“American superintelligence is not subject to the whims of overreaching European bureaucrats. If the UK doesn’t want to show gratitude for us keeping their vital services operating, then they are welcome to go elsewhere. We will not accept an unfair tax on US innovation.”

The White House

5 MARCH 2036

THE AI STANDOFF: US vs UK

• 30 day deadline — Unless the UK abandons inspection requirements and the AI Transition Levy, the US will cut off access to advanced AI models and chips, impose 25% tariffs on British goods
• AI Safety Commission sticks to position — The AI Safety Commission said it will enforce the Act against any provider that has not complied by the deadline
• Unions mobilized — The Workers' Federation, main public sector union, said it would oppose any deal that scraps the levy, called national march for Saturday.
• Defense cooperation unchanged — The US has stated that defense and intelligence cooperation with the UK will continue unchanged in all scenarios
• China issues offer — Chinese Embassy said Chinese AI companies are ready to help Britain keep its public services running, with systems Britain could inspect in full.
• Meridian is caught in the middle — It cannot obey both British and American law.

THE TEAMS

• HM Government — Can legislate, direct the civil service and the Commission, and lift the China ban. Little money to spend. (Majority of 18, the Treasury and the contingency plans.)
• Reform UK — Can use Parliament, the media and rallies. Not in government, so cannot make policy. (About 150 MPs and a 31% lead in the polls.)
• Washington — Can cut off American AI and chips and impose tariffs. Congress and US firms want restraint. (Trusted partner status and the China summit.)
• Beijing — Can offer Lantern's AI, trade and investment, or restrict exports. Banned from British public services. (Lantern, rare earths and batteries.)
• Meridian — Can stay, withdraw or offer audits. Cannot share model weights without a US licence. (Agents running benefits, NHS 111 and housing.)
• British Business Council — Can lobby, speak for business and organise joint investment. Has no formal power. (Britain's biggest firms, banks to shops.)
• Workers' Federation — Can march, boycott, strike after a ballot and decide on redeployment. Cannot make policy. (5.9 million members staffing public services.)

WEDNESDAY 5 MARCH 2036

ROUND 1

• Washington gives the UK 30 days to drop inspection and the levy, or lose American AI and chips and face 25% tariffs.
• The AI Safety Commission will enforce the Act against any provider not compliant by 4 April.
• The Workers' Federation will oppose any deal that scraps the levy, and calls a national march for Saturday.
• China's embassy offers Chinese AI that Britain could inspect in full.
• US defence and intelligence cooperation with Britain continues unchanged.
• Meridian cannot obey both British and American law.
• Sterling falls 4% as Asian markets open.

• Does Britain give in, hold the line or find another route?
• What happens to public services if Meridian leaves on 4 April?
• Who pays for Transition Income if the levy goes?
• How far will Washington go to punish a close ally?
• Should Chinese AI help keep Britain's services running?